Managing Downswings as a Poker Player
November 18th, 2011 Poker Strategy
A “downswing” is the term that poker players use to indicate a series of results below expectations. Specifically, a poker player use this term to refer to situations where a winning poker player earns significantly less than usual (or loses), a player “breakeven” (which is kept in balance and winnings loss) starts to lose and a losing player loses money even faster. All players will sooner or later stumble into a series downswings or bad run that we must be able to anticipate and which we must respond correctly to avoid bankruptcy.
Mathematics of a Downswing
What is the chance to suffer a downswing? This depends on the variance. The more a player has a win rate (rate of gain in big blinds per 100 hands in cash games or tournaments ROI) low, the greater the chance of suffering a downswing because of high variance. There is a quote on downswing from Craig Hartman: “In the long run everyone will eventually suffer a losing streak worse than they thought possible. The difference between a winning player and a loser is that he thinks he had not deserved. ”
The higher the wager, the higher is the probability of occurrence downswing. Even the regular poker players with a very good win rate put themselves in to downswing sooner or later. You could safely say that over the long term the possibility of suffering a downswing is 100%. So, it is better to prepare for this possibility to be able to react better.
Bankroll Downswing
The best protection against a downswing is to adopt a good bankroll management. The bankroll management is not to end up losing all your capital because of a losing streak. But we must emphasize that whatever the bankroll management is adopted, the risk is never zero. In general, a good bankroll management accepts the risk of ruin between 2 and 4%. The bankroll management strategies vary depending on the type of game (cash games, multi-table tournament or sit’n'go) and variants play (Hold’em or Omaha). It would be good to play with a number of buy-ins in order to mitigate losses and keep playing the same limit. For example, you should play with 25 buy-ins of 100 big blinds in a NL100 and NL50 if you have decided to get back down to below 20 buy-ins.
Psychology of a Downswing
The downswing is simply a matter of probability and management. However, involves a good amount of psychology for two main reasons: the tilt and the denial. Anyway, Tilt is bit easy to understand, when a player suffers a losing streak, can begin to play so emotionally instead of rationally making decisions sometimes that are not optimal, resulting in further aggravate losses. According to his psychological strength, risk aversion and the amount of money put into play, a player can go on tilt more or less easily. Do not tilt or be able to leave the table when you are on tilt and this is possibly the best way to avoid downswing. The second parameter – that of denial – is more critical because more difficult to recognize and thus to correct. A player may simply not realize that he is on tilt. His ego may prevent him from admitting that his bankroll has been reduced to such an extent that is inevitable down the limit. Some players may refuse to admit that their style of play is inappropriate for certain limits and tables. Things like this happen especially to players who are normally big winners. “As soon as you think your bankroll is safe, worry. As soon as you think you are regular winners, doubt. It is often said that humility is the key to success in poker, and it is true, was written by Andrew Seidman in 2006 after losing his entire bankroll at NL25.
Just hoping that this article will help you to avoid all downswings and make you more confident to play poker.